Holiday spending to be up modestly as shoppers remain cautious

Summary Box: Holiday spending

HOLIDAY OUTLOOK: Retailers and economists generally expect holiday retail revenue will rise modestly compared with last year’s tepid increase.

BEHIND THE FORECASTS: High unemployment and tight credit are expected to keep a lid on buying.

WHAT IT WILL TAKE: The back-to-school season was saved by a late buying spree fueled by heavy discounting. That scenario will likely be repeated for the holidays.