UN predicts ’stable’ 2010 Afghan opium cultivation, warns of fewer poppy-free provinces

UN forecasts ’stable’ Afghan opium crop

VIENNA — After a major drop over the past two years, Afghanistan’s opium cultivation is unlikely to rise or fall dramatically in 2010, a U.N. report said Wednesday.

The U.N. Office on Drugs and Crime’s annual winter survey said bad weather may lead to a decrease in opium production but warned the country could see fewer poppy-free provinces.

Afghanistan supplies 90 percent of the world’s opium, the main ingredient in heroin, and the highly lucrative crop has helped finance insurgents and fueled corruption.

“Overall, the cultivation of opium in Afghanistan is likely to remain stable in 2010 but the number of poppy-free provinces may decrease,” from 20 to 17, according to the report.

“However, if timely poppy eradication measures are implemented and/or drought conditions prevail, a total of 25 provinces — an increase of five compared to 2009 — could be poppy-free in 2010.”

Opium cultivation in Afghanistan peaked in 2007 and then fell for two consecutive years from about 478,000 acres (193,000 hectares) to 304,000 acres (123,000 hectares) in 2009.

In September, the Vienna-based UNODC said Afghanistan was still producing 6,900 tons of opium a year, 1,900 tons more than the world consumes. In 2007, production stood at a staggering 8,200 tons.

The report, which surveyed 536 Afghan villages, found that 35 percent said they had planted opium poppy for the 2010 cultivation season and that higher sales prices compared to other crops was the predominant reason for doing so.

While the price of dry opium has fallen 6 percent compared to a year ago, the price of wheat has decreased by 43 percent, the report showed. The price of maize dropped by 38 percent over the past year. In contrast, the cost of fresh opium dipped 13 percent.

“None of Afghanistan’s licit agricultural products can currently match the gross income per hectare from opium, although the difference is not as high as it used to be some years ago,” the report said.

The survey also found that 79 percent of villages with very poor security conditions grew poppy, while only 7 percent of villages unaffected by violence — or with “very good security” — did so.

“This is further proof of the overlap between high insecurity and high cultivation,” UNODC chief Antonio Maria Costa said in a statement. “The message is clear: in order to further reduce the biggest source of the world’s deadliest drug, there must be better security, development and governance in Afghanistan.”

On the Net:

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