US forecaster predicts large Republican gains in November polls

WASHINGTON - Political forecaster James E. Campbell, a professor and chair of the Department of Political Science at the University at Buffalo, has predicted that the Democrats might lose 51 seats in the House of Representatives in the November election, producing a Republican majority.

Campbell’s forecast, to be presented this week at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association in Washington, D.C., is based on what he calls the “seats-in-trouble model.”

This forecasting equation factors in the president’s approval rating and the degree to which one political party is in danger of losing seats in the election, is estimated by a non-partisan Cook Political Report.

“Partisanship, ideology, the midterm decline from the prior presidential surge, the partisanship of districts being defended, and even President Obama’s approval ratings have set the stage for significant seat gains by Republicans in the House,” Campbell writes.

He points out that in the last election Democrats took more seats than usual by winning in districts where they usually do not hold sway. This means they are “overexposed,” he says, since they currently represent many districts that usually vote Republican.

“President Obama’s approval rating is now at 44 percent, which is not strong enough to check heavy Democratic losses this year,” he claimed.

“With these point forecasts,” he says, “while there is an outside shot of Democrats holding the House, the odds appear to be quite favorable for the Republicans regaining the House majority they lost in 2006,” he added. (ANI)